The Journey, Part VI: The October Surprise

We all have seen this in recent political history: The October Surprise, an event that due to its groundbreaking or surprising nature, has the ability to throw an election one way or the other. Some may be legit, some are just downright nasty. When you read The Calling to Lead, you will note there are three October Surprises that play into the storyline. In my writing and researching, I studied some of the October Surprises in recent history, as well as other crazy incidents in politics to hit the airwaves. I'll leave you all guessing as to what they are and their effect on the storyline, but in the meantime, here are some of the more notable October surprises.

Peace at Hand, 1972: News broke that then National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger brokered a deal to end American Involvement in the Vietnam War. At a press conference that took place in October of 1972, he stated, "peace is at hand." Talks broke down and military actions resumed, including the Christmas Day bombings, but by January of 1973, the Paris Peace Accords were signed. Peace at hand definitely helped Nixon in his re-election efforts against McGovern as it took a major issue away from him. Combined with this and McGovern's horrible campaign, Nixon was re-elected in a landslide.

Iran Hostage Crisis, 1980: The Iran Hostage Crisis hampered the Carter Administration and was the focus of news coverage for the 444 days it lasted (Nightline originally started as a special news broadcast to cover the hostage crisis). Negotiations failed as did military rescues, most notably Operation Eagle Claw. Both sides thought the opposition would use this hostage crisis as an October Surprise; Carter's camp having a successful military rescue or brokering a last minute deal, or Reagan's camp convincing the Iranians to delay the release past the election. Looking back, I believe that Iran delayed the release to make Carter look like a fool and weaken his stance as President, at the same time embarrassing the United States. The only reason they were released on January 20, 1981 was due to the fact that a new president (Reagan) was more direct than Carter and that they feared what his reaction would be. Therefore, neither camp had any direct influence to release the hostages.

Caspar Weinberger and the Iran-Contra Hearings, 1992: Despite his successes in guiding and leading during Operation Desert Storm, George H.W. Bush's poll numbers took a big hit due to economic challenges at home and Ross Perot was also running as a 3rd Party Candidate. Leading up to the election, Independent Counsel Lawrence Walsh was investigating those involved in the Iran-Contra Scandal. Walsh announced the indictment of Weinberger the month before the election. In his lame duck period after losing the election, President George H.W Bush pardoned Weinberger. I would argue this October Surprise further damaged Bush 41 in his re-election effort.

George W. Bush DWI, 2000: The week before the election, news broke that in 1976, George W. Bush was arrested for a DWI in Kennebunkport, Maine. It was released to the media by a Democrat Party member in Maine who had prior knowledge about it. This last minute release was meant to embarrass Bush and a last ditch effort at throwing the election to Gore, but while it may have had an effect with some Evangelical Christian voters or Mormon voters, it had no effect on the Florida Recount...we can thank the media for that one, calling Florida for Gore at 7:45, when voters in Pensacola and the panhandle (in the Central Time Zone) still had 15 more minutes to vote.

Forged CBS Documents, 2004: Technically in September, but meant to have stayed in the media until October, CBS Producer Mary Mapes had acquired documents from Bill Burkett, allegedly written by Bush's Commander, Jerry Killian (deceased), claimed in these documents that Bush did not fulfill his commitment to the Air National Guard. This story was aired by Dan Rather on 60 Minutes as an exclusive. As the story circulated, the blog Little Green Footballs examined the documents and came to the conclusion they were forgeries, as a result of an examination of the font style (the documents were in Times New Roman, the default font in Microsoft Word, a font not used in a typewriters during the time the documents were allegedly written.) After media follow-ups and an examination of the font, the documents were proven as forgeries. George W. Bush ended up increasing his plurality and as a result of Dan Rather's constant defense and unwillingness to accept responsibility, he was pushed out at CBS.

Mark Foley, 2006: In October of 2006, it came to light that Congressman Mark Foley (R-FL) had sent emails and IMs of a sexual nature to teenage boys who served as Congressional Pages. When the first emails came out, Foley immediately resigned and apologized, but it was later found out that Foley had a pattern of this activity. Foley's Scandal, combined with Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal and Randall "Duke" Cunningham's conviction made it easier for the Democrats to pin the moniker "Culture of Corruption" on the Republicans. In that Midterm, the Democrats won both houses of Congress and their inability to defend themselves in light of the scandal(s), combined with the Republican abandonment of Conservatism, contributed to Republican losses.

We are approaching the final month of the 2010 Midterm Election cycle and I will guarantee that a few October surprises will be attempted. Not sure exactly what, but for sure, I'm thinking creatively. Buckle up as these next 40+ days will be a bumpy ride!

UPDATE: Here comes the mud!