Monday, November 1, 2010

Out on a Limb: Prediction Time!!!


The past two months, I have been closely following the campaigns around the country via the news, via Cook, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics, and via friends around the country. Furthermore, I have closely followed and been involved with local campaigns. I have come to the conclusion that a large majority of voters are dissatisfied, angered and sickened by what has gone on in Washington. You've read it here on "The 'Right' Solutions," you will eventually read it in The Calling to Lead once it's published, as my prediction is a part of the storyline. You know where I'm going to go with this! It is this poisonous atmosphere in Washington, as the various state capitals that will bring about change. We first started to see rumblings last summer in the health care town hall meetings. It eventually made its way to the polls last November with victories in New Jersey and Virginia, then saw it continue with Scott Brown's victory in the Massachusetts special election for the seat held by Ted Kennedy.

If you want this change to continue, if you want the Federal Government to be a force that allows for success and not a force that determines success, you need to vote Republican in this election tomorrow!!!

It is now prediction time:

The House of Representatives: 65 Republican Seats. My numbers two weeks ago were about 8-10 lower, but with the consistency of the above factors, I have moved my prediction to 65. In specific states, New Jersey will gain between 1 and 3 seats, Florida will gain 4, New York will gain at least 3 and it could be more and Ohio could gain at least 3. If the big names who are running in surprisingly close elections fall (e.g. Frank, Dingel, among others), my prediction will be wrong and the number will be higher.

The Senate: 11 Republican Seats. This number is very optimistic, but I believe it can be done. Let's look at the races that I think will be Republican net gains.

Arkansas: Easy win by John Boozman who will defeat incumbent Blanche Lincoln.
North Dakota: John Hoeven will definitely win in an open seat.
Indiana: Open seat because Evan Bayh will chose not to defend his seat. Dan Coats will win and return to the Senate
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson will defeat long time incumbent Russ Feingold easily.
Colorado: Ken Buck will win this one.
Illinois: Believe it or not, this is a close one, but in the end, Mark Kirk will defeat Alexi Giannoulias. After hearing this interview and reading about his history, I am troubled that voters will overlook those items. Watch for shenanigans here.
Pennsylvania: Watch out for shenanigans here too (remember, it was Philadelphia where the Black Panther voter intimidation incident took place that I previously covered.), but I think Toomey will win.
Nevada: We've already heard about shenanigans here, but in the end, Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid.
Washington: This will be a close one, but in the end, Dino Rossi wins it. He already had one election stolen from him and won't allow a second theft.

The deciding states: Two of these are the wildcards that could go either way. Of the two wildcards I am predicting we will get only one of the two...which ones, I cannot call it.

California: This hard fought race between 18 year incumbent Barbara Boxer, the ultimate Washington insider and Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of HP. California has trended left over the years and for Carly to maintain her numbers has been nothing short of a miracle. California voters, have been inspired by her will, her fight and her passion, coming off a year of breast cancer treatment, and know her business history which she can apply to the Senate. Barbara Boxer, while being one of the more liberal senators, comes off as elitist and condescending. Carly has effectively let the voters know about those incidences and others. A few months ago, I devised a strategy how Republicans can win California. To sum it up, the winner will be determined by who gets the most voters in the San Francisco Bay Area. Carly will win the majority of Southern California counties (maybe not Los Angeles County) and she will win in the agricultural areas. Boxer will do well in the San Francisco Bay Area, Central-Western and Northwestern California. Despite the polls, I believe this race to be very close.

West Virginia: With the passing of Senator Robert Byrd, there is a special election between current Democrat Governor Joe Manchin and Republican businessman John Raese. A popular governor, Manchin has run right of center, even taking a shot to the Cap and Trade bill in one of his ads. Raese has effectively called out Manchin on his hypocrisy and had some heavy hitters like Sarah Palin come into the Mountain State to campaign with him. Me personally, I cannot understand how a state whose livelihood is coal would support a candidate who is from the same party of a president who would negatively affect their industry and jobs. That being said, West Virginia is a Democrat State, despite their disdain for Obama, and that is the reason why I am unsure about this state.

And now, the upset special:

Delaware: You've heard it here. I believe Christine O'Donnell will win! Chris Coons has been exposed as a tax hiker, as a rubber stamp to the Obama agenda and New Castle County voters have a clear view into his effectiveness in leadership. There are also questions about whether his family will benefit from Cap and Trade. The media has taken every shot possible at Christine O'Donnell (many of which have been documented on "The 'Right' Solutions") and distorted her words, yet she keeps going and goes on the offensive; in a way taking Joe Biden's advice. Not only has she kept going, she has exceeded expectations in the face of media and liberal hostility. I have said many times that Delaware is supposed to be this safe, Democrat stronghold, yet Obama and Biden have been to Delaware twice to campaign for Coons, they have diverted resources to Delaware and they are continually attacking Christine O'Donnell. O'Donnell will do well in Kent and Sussex Counties and needs New Castle County to win. I believe she will do it!

Republicans will also do well in Governors' races across the United States.

This is a PIVOTAL election so do your civic duty and get out to vote as I'll be at 6AM. We meet at dawn!

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