New Jersey Electoral Analysis

Let's recap my prediction in the state of New Jersey. In Congress, I predicted a GOP gain of 1 to 3 seats. I was fully in the ballpark as we gained one seat. A race I did not pay as close attention to went the Republicans' way as well; the Bergen County Executive.

That being said, the Conservative Tsunami did make its way into New Jersey, however it only made it as far north as Toms River and as far south as Lyndhurst.

Starting in North Jersey in Bergen County, Kathleen Donovan was elected County Executive, along the three Republicans candidates for Freeholder. Bergen County is New Jersey's most populous county and until 10 years ago, had a long history of being a bastion for Republican politics. Route 4 used to be considered the dividing line as north of Route 4 was considered the Republican section of the Bergen and south of Route 4 considered the Democrat portion of the Bergen. Leading up to McGreevey's victory, that line began to make its way up Route 17 into Paramus, Oradell and Ridgewood, and into some of the municipalities north and east of Hackensack. Democrats have also, in those ten years, been winning county-wide elections. With the conviction of Joe Feriero and the near victory in Bergen of Governor Christie, combined with the political climate in the nation, Republicans were successful in Bergen this year and hopefully the trend will continue.

In Congress, voters of the 3rd Congressional District sent Jon Runyan to Congress, defeating Freshman Congressman and veteran politician John Alder. I have covered the dirty tricks from sending opposition researchers to hide out in his bushes to funding a fake Tea Party candidate, Adler has stopped at nothing to hold this seat. In the end, voters were dissatisfied with the situation in Washington, along with their lack of leadership representing them in Congress. Jon Runyan united the Republican Party and won a huge plurality in Ocean County, the region which makes the 3rd a Republican leaning district.

While Jon Runyan prevailed, Republican Challengers in the 6th and the 12th did not.

In the 6th Congressional District, Anna Little was defeated by Congressman Frank Pallone. Having been covering this campaign, as well as participating in it, I was glad to see this race come alive in the closing months, as it's been common practice that Frank Pallone walks into re-election. Anna Little came out of nowhere to wrest the nomination from Diane Gooch by 83 votes with strong Tea Party support. Even though she defeated the "establishment-backed" candidate, the establishment was very smart to not treat her like the establishment treated Christine O'Donnell. Middlesex GOP Chair Sam Thompson, Monmouth GOP Chair Joe Oxley and the other Republicans accepted her candidacy and eventually Governor Christie passionately campaigned for her. As I stated in my previous post, Pallone followed Gooch's strategy and did not engage her, instead saving his $4 million campaign war chest for another campaign (And trust me, he wants to run a statewide campaign, but will he be the front runner to challenge Christie in 2013?). When he did actively campaign, he did so with a sense of entitlement. Conservative groups, along with Diane Gooch, came into the game to run ads against Pallone in support of Little's candidacy. And while Little won Monmouth, in the end, those Bayshore and coastal towns were not enough to overcome the heavy Democrat vote in New Brunswick, Edison and Plainfield. Anna Little should hold her head high that because of her ardent supporters in the 6th, she was able to make sure Frank Pallone didn't win by the enormous pluralities he has won by in the past, this time, only by a pluarality of 10%.

In the 12th Congressional District, Republican Challenger Scott Sipprelle was defeated by Congressman Rush Holt by a plurality of 7 percentage points. Also having previously covered this race, along with participating it, I was very impressed by not only Scott's knowledge of economics and ability to articulate Conservative solutions to fixing our problems, but also by his act of taking the veteran Congressman apart in their debates, one of which, I witnessed. Furthermore, I was impressed by his inclusion of Tea Party supporters whose candidate was defeated in the primary. The Congressman slammed him in many disgustingly low and dishonest ads, but Scott Sipprelle kept going. Like Anna Little, Scott Sipprelle should also hold his head high as Rush Holt had one of his lowest winning percentages in years and was not afraid to take the Congressman on. Hopefully Scott's campaign will resonate with voters who will spread the words if either Scott jumps into the fray again, or another strong Republican steps up to take a shot at defeating Rush Holt in the future.

The 6th and the 12th are drawn in such a way that they are gerrymandered to make it easier for the Democrat incumbents to win, however, last night's results show they are not lost causes. What can be done you ask? This is where Governor Christie comes in. It is time for him to show his leadership and take a bigger hand in how these districts will be redrawn. As a result of the 2010 Census, we will lose one Congressional Seat. It has not been publicly said which district, but the Governor should fight to split the 9th District (Southeast Bergen, part of Hudson) into either the 8th or the 13th. The 6th and the 12th should be redrawn to give the districts more parity and allow a true representation of the political persuasion of all those who reside in the respective district. The Governor will be in for a fight if he takes this up, but I have the confidence in him that he will take it up and he will prevail.

The next election year will be focused on Trenton as it will be time for the Legislative Midterm Elections. It will be interesting to see how much of a role Christie will take in campaigning and recruiting, as well as the role of his opposition groups such as the NJEA, AFSME and SEIU in keeping Democrat majorities in the Assembly and Senate. Considering that the New Jersey Republicans now have the fundraising advantage and a very strong chairman in Jay Webber, it may be a very active year where we need to have our popcorn ready!