Sunday, October 17, 2010

Energy in the 6th Like Never Before


If one takes a look at the map of the 6th Congressional District of New Jersey, one will see it is gerrymandered "to the extreme" in order to make sure the incumbent continues to win. For as long as I could remember, Frank Pallone has been the Congressman and is facing the biggest challenge of his political career to date in the candidacy of Highlands Mayor and former Monmouth County Freeholder, Anna Little.

Her rise was unlikely and unexpected, defeating heavily favored and financed Diane Gooch in the Republican Primary by 83 votes, who was endorsed by the area pols. Many, including myself, predicted Diane would win and would be able to stay in the fight against Pallone's $4.3 million war chest (she had already begun to take the bark off Pallone with some early ads). Since winning the primary, Anna Little has been heavily campaigning across the 6th District, has the strong backing of the TEA Party and the full support of the area politicians and power brokers. She has a very strong ground game, enthusiastic supporters and supporters who dominate the web and social networks in her favor. Anna Little also articulates well-thought and clear reasons why voters of the 6th should send her to Washington. Two weeks before the election, it is amazing to see the road she has traveled, how she grew as a candidate, and supporters hope to carry her over the finish line on Novebmer 2nd.

Late this afternoon, I attended her rally in the northern portion of the 6th, which was also attended by Governor Chris Christie, Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno, as well as local Republican candidates. Here is excerpt I recorded of Christie's speech:



I arrived 20 minutes early and ended up having to park 3 blocks away! By the time the rally emptied out, area streets had to be closed! At this rally, Anna Little had TEA Party supporters there, former Gooch supporters, area political leaders, as well as the Governor and Lieutenant Governor. The audience in that fully packed hall was 100% united behind Anna Little's candidacy.

For the first time in a long time, I believe that Frank Pallone is vulnerable. He was a sponsor of the Health Care Bill, his voting record is clearly aligned with that of Nancy Pelosi and I almost get the feeling he "assumes" he will be re-elected. His arrogance has become apparent and open over the years, whether denying Inauguration tickets (in 2001 and 2005) to Republicans in his district or ignoring his constituents. What I find even more telling and ominous in the next two weeks is his use of a similar strategy that Diane Gooch used. Diane did not engage Anna Little, did not attack her and ads she did talked about her background, her plan and Frank Pallone. Frank Pallone has also not engaged her, has not even mentioned her and has not really even campaigned until a couple of weeks ago. It looks as if he has not put a dent into his $4.3 million, considering that I believe Pallone will challenge Chris Christie in 2013 if re-elected. He is now seen around the district and tonight, the two candidates finally debate.

This is another race that is much closer than polled and will also go down to the wire. In the end, this race is one of the three in New Jersey that have the chance of the Republican challenger winning, reddening this once deep blue state.

2 comments:

  1. very informative ..cant wait till Nov. 2nd to see how accurate you are though =) ..

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  2. Thanks! The way these districts are drawn in New Jersey, they tend to favor the incumbents, which is why 10 of the 13 will have no change.

    District 3 (South Jersey) leans Republican, yet a Democrat is their Congressman and that was a result of Obama's coattails and an open seat. That is the one district where I am confident to say the incumbent will not win. There's been a lot of questionable tactics used by Adler and the Dems. The Republican running is Jon Runyan, former Philadelphia Eagle.

    Districts 6 (Pallone) and 12 (Holt) lean Democrat, but there are two very good candidates running (Sipprelle-12, Little, 6)and in this election cycle, nothing is "conventional." Having met both candidates, attended events and participated in campaign activties, I can tell you that I've never seen an election year where Republicans are so enthusiastic and organized. If there's a year a Republican challenger wins, it's this year.

    Rasmussen is predicting a 55 seat GOP gain (they need 39). I think that's a bit 'safe,' as I think it will be higher. I'll blog more about it that in the future.

    Thanks for reading and feel free to "follow!"

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