Priceless Midterm Moments

A little levity for a moment. David Letterman has a Top 10, The Right Solutions is going to have a Top 5; the Top 5 Candidates to "Remember"...:

5. Jack Conway: Nastiest ad of the campaign. He was done, losing to Rand Paul by 12%.



4. Krystall Ball: I touched on this earlier in the cycle and still laugh really hard about the story and her reaction to it. And she was defeated.



3. Alan Grayson: Soon to be former Congressman, soon to be future MSNBC Host, thoroughlly covered here and while everybody remembers the Taliban Dan ad, I found this rip-off of Eliot Spitzer rather creepy:



2. Alvin Greene: The Democrat who ran against Jim DeMint, who seemed lost and who has a criminal case pending, lost by a large margin to DeMint. There was also a lot of breathing room at his election night party. His ad looks like it was done by a high school intern, his interview was something to watch!



1. Jimmy "Papa Smurf" McMillian, candidate for Governor of New York representing "The Rent is Too Damn High" Party!

New Jersey Electoral Analysis

Let's recap my prediction in the state of New Jersey. In Congress, I predicted a GOP gain of 1 to 3 seats. I was fully in the ballpark as we gained one seat. A race I did not pay as close attention to went the Republicans' way as well; the Bergen County Executive.

That being said, the Conservative Tsunami did make its way into New Jersey, however it only made it as far north as Toms River and as far south as Lyndhurst.

Starting in North Jersey in Bergen County, Kathleen Donovan was elected County Executive, along the three Republicans candidates for Freeholder. Bergen County is New Jersey's most populous county and until 10 years ago, had a long history of being a bastion for Republican politics. Route 4 used to be considered the dividing line as north of Route 4 was considered the Republican section of the Bergen and south of Route 4 considered the Democrat portion of the Bergen. Leading up to McGreevey's victory, that line began to make its way up Route 17 into Paramus, Oradell and Ridgewood, and into some of the municipalities north and east of Hackensack. Democrats have also, in those ten years, been winning county-wide elections. With the conviction of Joe Feriero and the near victory in Bergen of Governor Christie, combined with the political climate in the nation, Republicans were successful in Bergen this year and hopefully the trend will continue.

In Congress, voters of the 3rd Congressional District sent Jon Runyan to Congress, defeating Freshman Congressman and veteran politician John Alder. I have covered the dirty tricks from sending opposition researchers to hide out in his bushes to funding a fake Tea Party candidate, Adler has stopped at nothing to hold this seat. In the end, voters were dissatisfied with the situation in Washington, along with their lack of leadership representing them in Congress. Jon Runyan united the Republican Party and won a huge plurality in Ocean County, the region which makes the 3rd a Republican leaning district.

While Jon Runyan prevailed, Republican Challengers in the 6th and the 12th did not.

In the 6th Congressional District, Anna Little was defeated by Congressman Frank Pallone. Having been covering this campaign, as well as participating in it, I was glad to see this race come alive in the closing months, as it's been common practice that Frank Pallone walks into re-election. Anna Little came out of nowhere to wrest the nomination from Diane Gooch by 83 votes with strong Tea Party support. Even though she defeated the "establishment-backed" candidate, the establishment was very smart to not treat her like the establishment treated Christine O'Donnell. Middlesex GOP Chair Sam Thompson, Monmouth GOP Chair Joe Oxley and the other Republicans accepted her candidacy and eventually Governor Christie passionately campaigned for her. As I stated in my previous post, Pallone followed Gooch's strategy and did not engage her, instead saving his $4 million campaign war chest for another campaign (And trust me, he wants to run a statewide campaign, but will he be the front runner to challenge Christie in 2013?). When he did actively campaign, he did so with a sense of entitlement. Conservative groups, along with Diane Gooch, came into the game to run ads against Pallone in support of Little's candidacy. And while Little won Monmouth, in the end, those Bayshore and coastal towns were not enough to overcome the heavy Democrat vote in New Brunswick, Edison and Plainfield. Anna Little should hold her head high that because of her ardent supporters in the 6th, she was able to make sure Frank Pallone didn't win by the enormous pluralities he has won by in the past, this time, only by a pluarality of 10%.

In the 12th Congressional District, Republican Challenger Scott Sipprelle was defeated by Congressman Rush Holt by a plurality of 7 percentage points. Also having previously covered this race, along with participating it, I was very impressed by not only Scott's knowledge of economics and ability to articulate Conservative solutions to fixing our problems, but also by his act of taking the veteran Congressman apart in their debates, one of which, I witnessed. Furthermore, I was impressed by his inclusion of Tea Party supporters whose candidate was defeated in the primary. The Congressman slammed him in many disgustingly low and dishonest ads, but Scott Sipprelle kept going. Like Anna Little, Scott Sipprelle should also hold his head high as Rush Holt had one of his lowest winning percentages in years and was not afraid to take the Congressman on. Hopefully Scott's campaign will resonate with voters who will spread the words if either Scott jumps into the fray again, or another strong Republican steps up to take a shot at defeating Rush Holt in the future.

The 6th and the 12th are drawn in such a way that they are gerrymandered to make it easier for the Democrat incumbents to win, however, last night's results show they are not lost causes. What can be done you ask? This is where Governor Christie comes in. It is time for him to show his leadership and take a bigger hand in how these districts will be redrawn. As a result of the 2010 Census, we will lose one Congressional Seat. It has not been publicly said which district, but the Governor should fight to split the 9th District (Southeast Bergen, part of Hudson) into either the 8th or the 13th. The 6th and the 12th should be redrawn to give the districts more parity and allow a true representation of the political persuasion of all those who reside in the respective district. The Governor will be in for a fight if he takes this up, but I have the confidence in him that he will take it up and he will prevail.

The next election year will be focused on Trenton as it will be time for the Legislative Midterm Elections. It will be interesting to see how much of a role Christie will take in campaigning and recruiting, as well as the role of his opposition groups such as the NJEA, AFSME and SEIU in keeping Democrat majorities in the Assembly and Senate. Considering that the New Jersey Republicans now have the fundraising advantage and a very strong chairman in Jay Webber, it may be a very active year where we need to have our popcorn ready!

A Tsunami in the House

While my predictions were a little off in the Senate, they were much closer in House. So far, Republicans gained 61 Seats, eclipsing their gains in 1994. As of this writing, there are still 12 seats where a winner has not been declared.

Americans spoke loudly in this House Election. They repudiated the heavy-handed tactics of Nancy Pelosi's Congress and the bills they passed, choosing to "hand back the keys" to the Republicans. We can go through race-by-race, but that honestly would be really tedious. Instead, I'm going to analyze major states and then some themes we observed in this election.

Florida: Voters in Florida spoke loudly in this election! They may have voted for Obama in 2008, but in the Midterm Election, Republicans prevailed. Republicans had big wins in the 8th with Daniel Webster handily defeating Alan Grayson. Grayson's disgusting tactics have been covered here and by the large pluarality by which Webster won, voters in the 8th had enough and would rather he be an MSNBC host (which may likely be the case) than their Congressman. One district over in the 24th, Sandy Adams defeated Suzanne Kosmas also handily. Voters in the 24th saw through the phoniness of Kosmas's "Blue Dog Democrat" positions as in the end, she supported the Obama agenda. These two districts fall within the I-4 Corridor and as I previously expressed, this swing region is not only important to Florida politics, but to American politics because of its nature to be a bellwether in American politics. Further down the Florida's Turnpike, Allen West had a big win in the 22nd, prevailing against incumbent Ron Klein. Voters in the 22nd were tired of the effects of the Obama agenda on their district and found a strong alternative to the status-quo. I covered the Lt-Col in this cycle and find him to be an inspiring speaker, strong Conservative and rising star in the Republican Party. Florida also had big wins in the 25th and 2nd!

New York: Obama's coat tails were key in many Congressional Races within the Empire State. He apparently lost his luster in many districts. In NY-19 John Hall apparently isn't "still the one" as he was defeated by Dr. Nan Hayworth. The 19th trends Republican and Hall, former frontman of Orleans, rode that wave. Voters in the 19th had enough and I closely followed this race as it was heavily advertised on radio based in New York City. In the the seat of former Congressman Eric "tickle-fight" Massa, Tom Reed won, the Republican-leaning district now having a Republican Congressman. Republicans also had big wins in the 20th and 24th.

Pennsylvania: With big statewide wins in the Senate and Governor's Office, fortunes for Republicans continued down ticket in Congress. Suburban voters in the Philadelphia Metro Area had big wins in the 8th (Bucks County) and the 7th (the seat formerly held by Joe Sestak). Republicans also fared well in Northeast Pennsylvania in the 10th, 11th and 15th. PA-3 in the Northwest portion of the state also is Republican again.

Ohio: In a state that went for Obama in 2008, that also saw the president visit a record number of times, had five GOP pickups in Congress. This state also has suffered from unemployment and has not benefited from the Stimulus as the president said it would. Further symbolic, the Cincinnati and Columbus regions are Republican again and this is also the home of presumptive Speaker John Boehner, Congressman in the 8th.

It should also be noted that in the next Congress, the GOP will be more diverse, containing more women and African-Americans than ever before!

In the end, this was truly a tsunami election and the Republicans who were sent to Washington to represent their respective Congressional Districts must remember why they were sent there, and that reason was to stop the Obama agenda. They must fare well in this and stand up to the President. Voters do not want compromise! Remember, they are not obligated to legislatively meet the president, the president has now been electorally mandated to legislatively meet Congress. I hope to see Speaker Boeher have a backbone in this matter and if they do not, Republicans could pay the price they did in 2006 for turning their back on principle. The ball is in their court now.

Rise of the Elephants: Senate

The people voted, the results are coming in and, the echoes of Americans shouting down the Obama agenda will be heard tomorrow in days, months and the two years to come.

Let's look at the Senate first. My predictions were a little short, but the 60-40 majority held by the Democrats in 2008 is now more balanced, with the Republicans gaining 6 seats. What I think should be noted is that in states where there was an open seat that Republicans were projected to win, they won in much bigger numbers than was expected. In New Hampshire, they had an effective candidate in Kelly Ayotte, who bridged Republican and Tea Party/Conservative support. Rand Paul handily won Kentucky and was helped by his opponent's shameful attack. Missouri was also thought to be closer, but was clearly a Republican win. The last minute drama in Florida proved to be of no consequence as Marco Rubio sailed. And on Marco Rubio, you heard it here, HE WILL BE THE KEYNOTE SPEAKER AT THE 2012 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION IN TAMPA! The media and the Democrats misread these states.

Republicans gained in the following states that I called: Indiana, Arkansas, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Illinois (Barack Obama's former Senate Seat)

Let's take a look at the states that went the other way than I predicted.

California: I thought Carly Fiorina ran a passionate campaign. That being said, she did not follow my format for winning the state. When looking at the map, she did well in Southern California (sans Los Angeles County...and I don't yet have specific numbers) and won no counties in the San Francisco Bay area. For a Republican to win, this is imperative. She did not do it and the voters, as a result sent Barbara Boxer back for another term.

Nevada: This one was a major target for Republicans. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the country and Harry Reid can shoulder a lot of the blame for that as the Senate Majority Leader. I think Sharron Angle ran an excellent campaign, fared well in her debate against Harry Reid, yet didn't come up with enough votes. It was her lack of getting votes in Clark County (Las Vegas Metro Area) that did her in. Reports of shenannigans have been running rampant the past two weeks, with big news breaking today, but the plurality is likely too great for any legal challenges to be successful.

West Virginia: This is another one that baffles me! Manchin may be popular, but he has switched positions more than John Kerry! It saddens me that West Virginians symbolically voted away their bread and butter because he took a gun to Cap and Trade. At least they get to vote on him in two years and let's see if he keeps his promises. With Harry Reid returning, something tells me he won't.

Delaware: In looking at the map, Christine O'Donnell won Kent and Sussex County, but lost New Castle County. Sadly, the New Castle County voters were blind to the leadership of Chris Coons. Despite the withering attacks, and I've covered them all here, Christine O'Donnell stood strong and still received 40% of the vote. Further analyzing, I believe she would have had a better chance at winning had the "establishment Republicans" supported her. Karl Rove's comments were the equivalent of a taking a pipe to someone's knee and I still do not understand why he did this. Considering the media going after him (unfairly) during the Bush years and coming under the gun of Patrick Fitzgerald, I do not consider Karl Rove "establishment," yet still stand by the belief that his disdain for Christine O'Donnell was personal.

As of this writing, Colorado, Washington and Alaska (which in itself has been a crazy race, but we can deduce it will either be a Republican or a sore loser Republican to win) still haven't been determined.

In closing, Republicans, while not gaining the majority, fared well in the Senate by bringing the body more parity than in the past two years. Illinois voters especially, sent the President a shockwave message by not electing the Democrat. There will be no more "ram it down your throat" legislation and there may be more gridlock as there are no more filibuster-proof majorities. Republicans must remember why they were sent to Washington and that is to stop the Obama agenda. It will be those Republicans who will face rebuke if they attempt to make deals and compromise their principles. Again, we will see how all parties involved will react as we move forward.

Make Your Voices Heard, Get Out and VOTE!

Well, the day has finally arrived; Election Day, and to the Democrats, Accountability Day! It is approaching 6PM. Florida's polls close at 7, many other states 8 and 9. Go make your voices heard! I stand by yesterday's prediction, so after we've gone to the polls, we can sit back and watch the returns. The magic numbers are 39 in the House and 10 in the Senate. Check back later tonight or tomorrow for analysis!

Out on a Limb: Prediction Time!!!

The past two months, I have been closely following the campaigns around the country via the news, via Cook, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics, and via friends around the country. Furthermore, I have closely followed and been involved with local campaigns. I have come to the conclusion that a large majority of voters are dissatisfied, angered and sickened by what has gone on in Washington. You've read it here on "The 'Right' Solutions," you will eventually read it in The Calling to Lead once it's published, as my prediction is a part of the storyline. You know where I'm going to go with this! It is this poisonous atmosphere in Washington, as the various state capitals that will bring about change. We first started to see rumblings last summer in the health care town hall meetings. It eventually made its way to the polls last November with victories in New Jersey and Virginia, then saw it continue with Scott Brown's victory in the Massachusetts special election for the seat held by Ted Kennedy.

If you want this change to continue, if you want the Federal Government to be a force that allows for success and not a force that determines success, you need to vote Republican in this election tomorrow!!!

It is now prediction time:

The House of Representatives: 65 Republican Seats. My numbers two weeks ago were about 8-10 lower, but with the consistency of the above factors, I have moved my prediction to 65. In specific states, New Jersey will gain between 1 and 3 seats, Florida will gain 4, New York will gain at least 3 and it could be more and Ohio could gain at least 3. If the big names who are running in surprisingly close elections fall (e.g. Frank, Dingel, among others), my prediction will be wrong and the number will be higher.

The Senate: 11 Republican Seats. This number is very optimistic, but I believe it can be done. Let's look at the races that I think will be Republican net gains.

Arkansas: Easy win by John Boozman who will defeat incumbent Blanche Lincoln.
North Dakota: John Hoeven will definitely win in an open seat.
Indiana: Open seat because Evan Bayh will chose not to defend his seat. Dan Coats will win and return to the Senate
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson will defeat long time incumbent Russ Feingold easily.
Colorado: Ken Buck will win this one.
Illinois: Believe it or not, this is a close one, but in the end, Mark Kirk will defeat Alexi Giannoulias. After hearing this interview and reading about his history, I am troubled that voters will overlook those items. Watch for shenanigans here.
Pennsylvania: Watch out for shenanigans here too (remember, it was Philadelphia where the Black Panther voter intimidation incident took place that I previously covered.), but I think Toomey will win.
Nevada: We've already heard about shenanigans here, but in the end, Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid.
Washington: This will be a close one, but in the end, Dino Rossi wins it. He already had one election stolen from him and won't allow a second theft.

The deciding states: Two of these are the wildcards that could go either way. Of the two wildcards I am predicting we will get only one of the two...which ones, I cannot call it.

California: This hard fought race between 18 year incumbent Barbara Boxer, the ultimate Washington insider and Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of HP. California has trended left over the years and for Carly to maintain her numbers has been nothing short of a miracle. California voters, have been inspired by her will, her fight and her passion, coming off a year of breast cancer treatment, and know her business history which she can apply to the Senate. Barbara Boxer, while being one of the more liberal senators, comes off as elitist and condescending. Carly has effectively let the voters know about those incidences and others. A few months ago, I devised a strategy how Republicans can win California. To sum it up, the winner will be determined by who gets the most voters in the San Francisco Bay Area. Carly will win the majority of Southern California counties (maybe not Los Angeles County) and she will win in the agricultural areas. Boxer will do well in the San Francisco Bay Area, Central-Western and Northwestern California. Despite the polls, I believe this race to be very close.

West Virginia: With the passing of Senator Robert Byrd, there is a special election between current Democrat Governor Joe Manchin and Republican businessman John Raese. A popular governor, Manchin has run right of center, even taking a shot to the Cap and Trade bill in one of his ads. Raese has effectively called out Manchin on his hypocrisy and had some heavy hitters like Sarah Palin come into the Mountain State to campaign with him. Me personally, I cannot understand how a state whose livelihood is coal would support a candidate who is from the same party of a president who would negatively affect their industry and jobs. That being said, West Virginia is a Democrat State, despite their disdain for Obama, and that is the reason why I am unsure about this state.

And now, the upset special:

Delaware: You've heard it here. I believe Christine O'Donnell will win! Chris Coons has been exposed as a tax hiker, as a rubber stamp to the Obama agenda and New Castle County voters have a clear view into his effectiveness in leadership. There are also questions about whether his family will benefit from Cap and Trade. The media has taken every shot possible at Christine O'Donnell (many of which have been documented on "The 'Right' Solutions") and distorted her words, yet she keeps going and goes on the offensive; in a way taking Joe Biden's advice. Not only has she kept going, she has exceeded expectations in the face of media and liberal hostility. I have said many times that Delaware is supposed to be this safe, Democrat stronghold, yet Obama and Biden have been to Delaware twice to campaign for Coons, they have diverted resources to Delaware and they are continually attacking Christine O'Donnell. O'Donnell will do well in Kent and Sussex Counties and needs New Castle County to win. I believe she will do it!

Republicans will also do well in Governors' races across the United States.

This is a PIVOTAL election so do your civic duty and get out to vote as I'll be at 6AM. We meet at dawn!

Scared Out of Their Minds in the First State

The Democrats are running scared in Delaware! Barack Obama and Joe Biden will be back to campaign for Chris Coons. Chris Coons has cancelled his remaining debates. Even though Delaware is supposedly a strong and reliable Democrat state, the Democrats are doing a lot to run against Christine O'Donnell and not treating it like a cake walk. This should open the eyes of the voters.

After a rally in Wilmington yesterday, it was announced that O'Donnell's campaign, purchased three half hour airtime slots so that an ad by O'Donnell's campaign could run before election day. After taking the campaign's money, Delaware 28 did not run the ad, claiming they "forgot." This is very sketchy, considering Delaware 28 is public television, which means government run, and I'd have lawyers looking at this to make sure that paid time gets used in another timeslot, or get the money back if they end up not running the ad.

For now, you can see the ad here.

The outcome of this campaign could very well be the one that shocks America!

UPDATE: Joe Biden returns to Delaware for a GOTV event and ONLY ATTRACTS 200!!!