Wednesday, July 27, 2011


Today, Rush posed the question of whether Obama is not only beatable, but landslideable. I agree with Rush, and the National Journal article he cited today, yet there's a but to my yes.

My "but" comes in on who the Republicans nominate to challenge Obama in 2012. In making that decision, voters need to realize that they must support a consistent conservative who has no fear to challenge Obama. It is my hope that Republicans examine history and realize that when a candidate runs as a conservative, he not only wins, but does so by a couple of touchdowns. Moderates, on the other hand, lose. The one aspect of history Republican voters must NOT repeat is voting for the guy who came in second the last election (or primary).

Let's assume that GOP voters support (and overcome the jumpers-in within open primary states) the candidate who is a consistent conservative with no fear. We must also assume that the party elders unite behind that candidate and don't take their toys and go home like they did in 2001 against Bret Shundler and like they did in 2010 against Christine O'Donnell, to be specific. Looking at the battleground states, they will likely not support Obama. The National Journal article cites Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire and Colorado as battleground states where Obama is likely to have problems, but let's build on that.

I believe (and already have a few beer bets going) that Barack Obama will lose Florida. The I-4 Corridor of Florida (Central Florida; including Daytona Beach, the Orlando Metro area and the Tampa Bay area) can swing that state either way and that region has suffered extremely high unemployment numbers that were supposed to fall with the passage of the Stimulus. Furthermore, in 2010, two Congressional Seats have flipped from Democrat to Republican, in response to the Obama agenda. Couple that with a very strong Republican vote in North Central Florida, Northern Florida, the Panhandle and Southwest Florida; Democrat disillusionment in South Florida (which is heavily blue), along with a likely decrease in the Jewish vote supporting Obama, as a result of his position on Israel, there is no way he can win the state.

In Indiana, there is a very popular Republican in Mike Pence running for Governor and the soon to be former Governor, Mitch Daniels, has an excellent record of job creation and a cut in spending. He also has high approval ratings. Furthermore, there are more Republicans representing Indiana in Congress, as a result of the Obama policies. The state is now firmly back in the Republican corner.

In 2008, the Electoral count was 365-173, in favor of Obama. Assuming the mentioned states in the article, as well as Indiana and Florida, go Republican, Obama loses 312-226. Add on a few more battlegrounds on to that, as well any possible surprises, we are entering landslide territory.

After an analysis of the battleground states, a landslide defeat of Obama is very possible, however, the onus is on Republican voters to choose the right candidate.

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