Sunday, October 7, 2012
Can Romney Win Colorado?
As of October 7th, one month from the election, I predict 252 Electoral Votes for Mitt Romney, consisting of the following states: Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia and New Hampshire. On the fence is Ohio, but after Romney thumped Obama in Tuesday's debate, we can look at other states; one such, being Colorado.
Obama's "Mile High Massacre", at the hands of Mitt Romney, changed everything about this campaign, and this debate just so happened to take place in Colorado. Even though it's not a Rasmussen Poll, there is a rather attention-getting poll, published on Saturday, that shows an eight point shift in Romney's favor; placing him 3.5 points ahead of Obama! Very noticeable, especially in less than a week. Colorado is now more in play, which, if going red, gives Romney 9 Electoral Votes, but let's analyze the state a little more.
Historically, Colorado is a Republican state and today, most of those Republican votes are in the Colorado Springs area, as well as in more rural areas of the state, yet there are pockets of Democrat voters, specifically in Aspen, Boulder and Denver. As the Denver Metro area has grown, so has the population of Democrat voters; specifically in the counties/towns along US 36 from Denver into Boulder, as well as Jefferson County; a suburb of Denver, including the towns of Golden, Littleton and Lakewood.
In the 2008 Election, Barack Obama won Colorado by just under 9 points. Comparing to 2004, Obama made extreme gains in previously Republican Counties of Arapahoe, Jefferson and Larimer (bordering Wymoning, along Interstate 25). Obama also picked up about 3 previous Republican Counties, along with gaining a higher pluarality in Denver and Boulder Counties.
For Romney to make Colorado red, the safe Republican counties must vote at a higher percentage for him, especially in Colorado Springs, which has the highest population of safe Republican areas and a high military population in the area. If a county voted in the high 50s, they must break into the 60s. If a county voted in the upper 60s, they must break into the 70s. Most importantly, Romney must focus on the suburban voters in Jefferson, Arapahoe and Douglas Counties. Across the country, Obama has lost favor with wealthy suburban voters and in Colorado, Romney must capitalize on this demographic.
To better position himself to win Colorado, Mitt Romney must also continue the momentum he built on Tuesday, continue targeted ads to Colorado focusing on jobs and military issues, as well as clearly relate, in any campaign stop he may make in the state within the next 30 days, to the voters. If Ohio does not go Romney's way, Colorado will be imperative, along with another state, to make up the difference.
And we continue onward to November 6th!