Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Nevada, The Next Red State?

Quick recap - so far, I believe Mitt Romney will definitely win 252 electoral votes, with the states of Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia and New Hampshire. Ohio with 18 electoral votes (and the win) is on the verge of going red, as is Colorado, with 9 electoral votes. Pennsylvania's bounty of 20 electoral votes is has more of a potential to be red than it has in a long time. Another important state is Nevada and after last night, I believe this state is more in play than it had previously been.

In 2008, Barack Obama won the state by 13 points, with a nearly 20 point win in Clark County (Las Vegas), 13 point win in Washoe County (Reno-Sparks) and a close win in Carson City. When looking back to 2004, George W. Bush won Nevada convincingly, and in the Republican counties, Bush received a higher percentage of the votes than did McCain in 2008.

Nevada has greatly suffered since the president won in 2008. The state suffered the distinction of having the highest foreclosure rate and unemployment rate in the nation. Furthermore, Barack Obama has declared war on tourism within the state, angering many, including influential businessman Steve Wynn and Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman. Nevadans have felt the brunt of this economy all over their state.

The 2010 elections produced mixed results within the state. Senator Harry Reid won re-election against Sharron Angle, a lot closer than many believed, facing the inexperienced TEA Party backed Republican. On the Republican side, Brian Sandoval won the gubernatorial election and there was a pickup in the House with the election of Joe Heck, defeating freshman incumbent Dina Titus.

Despite still holding the highest unemployment rate, I have been under the belief that Nevada would be blue in 2012, but with the recent surge of Romney and his debate performance, Mitt Romney now has a chance. Also noteworthy is that 13% of the population of Nevada declare themselves as members of the LDS Church. Mormons consider themselves members of one of the most closely knit religious communities within the United States and I believe that, in near unison, they will come out to support one of their own on November 6th: Mitt Romney.

Most importantly is the trend of the voters. Last night, Frank Luntz led a focus of undecided voters on the 2nd debate, and the results were quite telling. Watch the videos to observe:

Hell hath no fury like a voter scorned! What we see here are a group of voters who supported the president in 2008, feel they were lied to, used and misled, are suffering as a result of this president, and come 2012, are going the other way, supporting Romney. It is this attitude that will wipe away the Democrat trend in Nevada, which has greatly suffered through the Barack Obama economy.

Nevada is worth 6 electoral votes to the winner, and both candidates believe the state is still in play. I am not ready to call the state one way or the other, but at no point in the 2012 electoral season have I believed Nevada to have a greater chance of being a red State on November 6, 2012. Only 20 more days until then to find out what the results will be.

No comments:

Post a Comment